160 - Oscar predictions

What follows is my Oscar predictions article as I submitted it to the NI:



It’s almost here! On Sunday the 79th Annual Academy Awards will air, which for me is a million times more interesting and thrilling than the Super Bowl. Sure, the process is appallingly political and most of the voters don’t even see all of the films, but what other time of the year can movie lovers get together and have a big celebration of the medium without being ridiculed?
The following are my predictions for who will win the six most important (read: cared about) categories. I will also list my preference for who should win, though I’ll limit my preference to the nominees. Last year, before I shot to fame and fortune writing for this paper, I guessed them all correctly. This year, I’d be happy to predict half.

Best Supporting Actor

Eddie Murhpy, Oscar winner? Come Sunday, those words will likely be truthful. Murphy was the best part of "Dreamgirls," but was it really a stretch? I’d argue no. It’s a vibrant performance, but the only real deviation is when he puts on a sad face to chop up heroin.
More affecting performances came from Alan Arkin as the surly grandfather in "Little Miss Sunshine" and Mark Wahlberg as the hilariously profane policeman in "The Departed." Djimon Hounsou’s was good in "Blood Diamond" but the part mainly consisted of him screaming and throwing a fit while DiCaprio does the heavy lifting, and Jackie Earle Haley’s tortured sex offender in "Little Children" is impressive, but not the sort of role voters can sink their teeth into.

Prediction: Eddie Murphy
Preference: Mark Wahlberg

Best Supporting Actress

To quote an anonymous Academy voter in Entertainment Weekly, "This whole bulls--- with Jennifer Hudson is completely out of hand." I can’t argue that her role didn’t elevate her star, but the suggestion that she deserves an Oscar for it is ludicrous. She can sing, but can’t act, and this isn’t the Grammys. Behold the reason why many cinephiles don’t take the ceremony seriously; awards handed out like candy to flashes in the pan.

As for the rest: Abigail Breslin of "Little Miss Sunshine" proved to be one of those rare child actors who can steal scenes from the adults. Cate Blanchett’s role as an adulterous schoolteacher in "Notes on a Scandal" was well acted but plain. Adriana Barraza put her health at risk for her powerful performance as a nanny who inadvertently puts her charges in danger in "Babel". But Rinko Kikuchi’s performance as a sexually frustrated deaf-mute teenager, also from "Babel," is an unmatched for its haunting emotional potency. I sincerely hope my prediction for this one is wrong.

Prediction: Jennifer Hudson
Preference: Rinko Kikuchi


Best Actor

The past two Best Actor winners received a statue for playing real people, and the odds are that Forest Whitaker’s performance as Ugandan dictator Idi Amin in "The Last King of Scotland" will continue the trend.

Other contenders include Peter O’Toole as a broken down old actor in "Venus" and Leonardo DiCaprio as a Rhodesian diamond smuggler in "Blood Diamond." Will Smith’s poor but ambitious dad in "The Pursuit of Happyness" and Ryan Gosling’s crack-addicted school teacher in "Half Nelson" are essentially non-competitors.

The voters "The Last King of Scotland" will likely agree that Whitaker deserves the prize for his frightening and charismatic portrayal of a real life monster. It’s the kind of bold and memorable role that Oscars were made for.

Prediction: Forest Whitaker
Preference: Forest Whitaker

Best Actress

Helen Mirren, this year’s Oscar lock. Her nuanced performance as Queen Elizabeth II has crushed the competition for other awards and is poised to do so once again.

It’s almost a shame that Mirren is a sure thing, because any other year this one could be close. Of the other nominees, Kate Winslet gave the most moving, complex performance as a bored suburban housewife longing for passion in her life. But who am I kidding? Mirren owns this one.

Prediction: Helen Mirren
Preference: Kate Winslet

Best Director

Is this finally Martin Scorsese’s year? The six-time Best Director nominee may have finally produced an Oscar winner with "The Departed." But as good as it may be, it is nowhere near his best work, or even the best of the year. In theory, the award rewards the best work this year, not over an entire career.

Out of all the nominees, perhaps the most accomplished was that of Paul Greengrass. His realistic and intense direction of "United 93" took an actual event and made it feel more like a documentary than a film. Of the remaining three, only Alejandro González Iñárritu did brilliant work, though he had an amazing script to work with; Greengrass’ direction is the indisputable driving force behind his masterpiece.

Prediction: Martin Scorsese
Preference: Paul Greengrass

Best Picture

The grand prize. This year’s five nominees are a particularly good selection, as usually at least one terrible film is thrown into the mix. But what a varied mix we have here; an international drama, a bloody crime thriller, a somber war film, a road trip comedy, and a royal biopic are competing for the honor of plastering "Best Picture Winner" all over the advertisements for the DVD.

As last year’s upset of "Brokeback Mountain" ala "Crash" demonstrated, there is no sure thing in this category. Every one of these films has at least a small possibility of winning, though only one will. "Little Miss Sunshine" was an indie beloved by audiences and critics, though comedies tend to lose. "Letters from Iwo Jima" hits a clear anti-war note and comes from a filmmaker beloved by the Academy but was comparatively little seen. The impressiveness of "The Queen" doesn’t change the fact that it could have been a made-for-TV movie and no one would have noticed.

That leaves "Babel" and "The Departed" as the front-runners. Many predict "The Departed" will win, and that may be, but it is mainly on the list due to the man who directed it. "Babel" is an incendiary masterpiece that easily reigns as the greatest film of the bunch, but make no mistake, it’s a hard pill to swallow, and Academy voters aren’t as far ahead of the curve as Hollywood would have you think.

It’s the hardest call on the list, but I’m going to put my faith in "Babel." Like last year’s upset winner, it has detractors, but also speaks with deep resonance about the human condition. Whichever film wins, it’ll be close.

Prediction: Babel
Preference: Babel


Think you can predict the future better than I can? You’re probably right, and should prove it! Email me your predictions for these six categories at jfrazier@uni.edu. If you correctly call each winner, then you will be congratulated in this very publication, and can then brag to your friends about how much smarter and wiser you are than me. Don’t forget your name and town!